2004 True Vote Model by TruthIsAll
The Excel True Vote Model Prove to yourself in 5 minutes why Kerry must have won - easy.
Also see Original Post of True Vote Model
The 2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL encapsulates the mathematical arguments which
indicate why Kerry easily won the 2004 election BEYOND A REASONABLE DOUBT.
Download and run the Excel model:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/KerryTrueVote.zip
The model calculates that the BASE CASE (most likely) VOTE COUNT was:
Kerry 66.10mm (52.57%)
Bush 58.38mm (46.43%)
Other 1.27mm (1.01%)
Total 125.74mm (includes uncounted votes)
There has been an ongoing controversy regarding the true winner of the 2004
election. Those who still believe that Bush won maintain that the state exit
polls and the 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) which Kerry won by 51-47%, do
not constitute proof of fraud. The rationale is that there is an inherent
Democratic bias in the polls. The reasons given are purely hypothetical.
Statistical evidence is not provided; in fact, the media will not release
detailed precinct-level data.
The reasons for the bias include, but are not limited to the following:
Kerry voters were more likely to respond to pollsters; exit poll
interviewers sought Kerry voters; Bush voters lied or forgot who they voted
for in 2000; the polls are not true random samples. These theories have been
debunked time and again. The naysayers claim that exit polls are not
designed to expose fraud in the U.S., even though they are in many
countries. They claim that the only purpose of U.S. exit polls is to
present a general picture of how the various demographics voted.
Naysayers dismiss early exit polls as being fraught with error. They never
consider the fact that the FINAL exit polls (State and National) are ALWAYS
forced to matched the RECORDED vote. They never consider the possibility of
a fraudulent vote count, which would indicate that the early exit polls are
closer to the TRUE VOTE. They assume that since the Democrats always do
better in the polls than in the vote count, the discrepancy must be due to
polling bias. They never consider the fact that in every election, a
significant percentage of votes cast (mostly Democratic) are never counted.
The TRUE VOTE MODEL uses factual historic election data. It considers voter
mortality and turnout estimates in order to calculate reasonable Exit Poll
weights. It assumes that the early 12:22am NEP vote shares are a good
starting point (base case) for the analysis, but allows the user to change
ANY AND ALL ASSUMPTIONS.
Users of the model are challenged to find one plausible Bush win scenario.
In lieu of this, the base case scenario indicates the Kerry won by over
seven million votes.
THE FACTS:
1) In 2000, 51.004 million voted for Gore, 50.456mm for Bush and 3.275mm
for Other (Nader et al)
2) Approximately 3.66 (3.5%) of the 104.7 million 2000 voters died prior to
2004. The U.S. 2000 annual mortality rate was 0.87%.
3) In 2004, the recorded vote was 122.3 million. This consisted of a)
returning 2000 Gore, Bush and Other voters and b) the DNV group:
first-time voters and others who voted prior to 2000 but did not vote in
2000.
4) Assuming the 0.87% annual mortality rate, the maximum number of
returning Gore voters was 49.22 million and 48.69mm for Bush.
5) The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED 2004
VOTE; IT IMPLICITLY ASSUMED ZERO FRAUD. We know this was NOT the case;
evidence of fraud abounds in Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, etc.
6) THE VOTED IN 2000 WEIGHTINGS WERE MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE. Why?
Because Bush 2000 voters could not have comprised 43% (52.57mm) of the 2004
recorded vote; Bush only had 50.46mm votes in 2000. Of these voters, only
48.69mm were alive in 2004. And some of them did not vote in 2004.
BASE CASE PARAMETER ESTIMATES:
1) 2000 VOTER TURNOUT
An unknown percentage of Gore, Bush and Other voters turned out in 2004.
For the base case, we assume 95% turnout for each.
2) UNCOUNTED VOTES
According to the Census, 125.7 million voted in 2004, so 3.4mm (2.74%) of
the total votes cast were NEVER counted. The vast majority of uncounted
votes are in heavily Democratic minority districts. The base case
assumption is that 75% (2.584mm) of the 3.445mm uncounted votes were for
Kerry, 24% for Bush and 1% for Other.
3) SWITCHED VOTES
Kerry's True Vote is given by the following equation:
Kerry True Vote = Recorded Vote + Uncounted Votes + Switched Votes
Given Kerry's True, Recorded and Uncounted vote shares, we can solve for
the approximate number of Switched (Kerry to Bush) votes:
Switched Votes = True Vote - Recorded - Uncounted
4.486 = 66.097 - 59.027 - 2.584
4) BASE CASE KERRY VOTE SHARES
According to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won 57% of DNV, 91% of Gore, 10% of
Bush voters and 71% of Other voters. These are the Base Case vote shares.
Uncounted votes only effect the total number of votes cast, not the vote
shares.
According to the Final 2:04pm NEP, Kerry won 54% of DNV, 90% of Gore, 9% of
Bush and 71% of Other voters. The Final NEP "How Voted in 2000"
weights were shown to be mathematically impossible. Since the Final was
FORCED to MATCH the RECORDED vote, the RECORDED VOTE MUST ALSO BE
IMPOSSIBLE. The fact that Kerry vote shares declined dramatically from
12:22am to the Final is further confirmation that the Final NEP does not
reflect the True Vote; rather, it matches the fraudulent, miscounted vote.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Given the FACTS and recognizing that UNCERTAINTY exists in a) 2000 voter
turnout in 2004, b) uncounted votes in 2004, and c) Kerry's share of
returning 2000 voters (the NEP MoE was given as 1.0% by the exit
pollsters), how does the model use this information?
The TRUE VOTE MODEL allows user entry of changes in input assumptions. In
addition, a powerful built-in Sensitivity Analysis feature automatically
calculates Kerry's vote share over a range of incremental changes in these
parameters. Parameter ranges and increments are also input by the user.
These are the BASE CASE input assumptions (data source in parentheses):
2000 voter turnout of Gore, Bush, Other: 95%, 95%, 95% (estimated)
Kerry share of DNV, Gore, Bush, Other: 57%, 91%, 10%, 71% (12:22am NEP)
Uncounted Votes as a % of Total Cast: 2.74% (2004 Vote Census)
Kerry, Bush, Other share of Uncounted votes: 75%, 24%, 1% (estimated)
____________________________________________________________
UNLIKELY SCENARIOS
Consider the following unlikely scenarios to view the effects of
significant reductions in Base Case parameters (shown in parentheses) on
Kerry's national vote share and margin:
Scenario 1:
10% advantage in turnout of Bush 2000 voters over Gore voters.
Gore turnout: 90% (95%)
Bush turnout: 100% (95%)
Kerry wins by 3.62mm votes (51.0-48%).
Scenario 2:
Reduce Kerry share of DNV by 6% and Gore 2000 voter turnout by 4%.
DNV share: 51% (57%)
Gore turnout: 91% (95%)
Bush turnout: 95% (95%)
Kerry wins by 2.88mm votes (50.6%-48.4%).
Scenario 3:
Reduce Kerry share of Gore voters by 4% and Bush voters by 2%.
Assume: 95% turnout of Gore and Bush voters
Gore share: 87% (91%)
Bush share: 8% (10%)
Kerry wins by 1.97mm votes (50.3%-48.7%).
____________________________________________________________
2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL
ELECTION FACTS: Votes Dem Share Rep Share Other Share
2000 Recorded 104.73 51.004 48.70% 50.456 48.18% 3.274 3.13%
2004 Recorded 122.30 59.027 48.27% 62.040 50.73% 1.228 1.00%
2004 Change 17.561 8.023 -0.43% 11.584 2.55% -2.046 -2.12%
____________________________________________________________
CALCULATION OF ADJUSTED WEIGHTS
2000 Vote 3.5% Voters Maximum 2004 Adjusted
Share Died Alive Weight Turnout Weight
Gore 51.004 48.70% 1.785 49.218 40.25% 95.0% 38.23%
Bush 50.456 48.18% 1.766 48.690 39.81% 95.0% 37.82%
Other 3.275 3.13% 0.115 3.160 2.58% 95.0% 2.46%
DNV - - - 24.672 17.36% - 21.49%
Total 104.73 100.0% 3.666 125.74 100.0% - 100.0%
____________________________________________________________
NATIONAL EXIT POLL (adjusted weights)
12:22am (13047) 2:04pm (13660)
VOTED Base Case
2000 Turnout Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 21.49% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0% 27.02 21.49% 54% 45% 1%
Gore 95% 38.23% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0% 48.07 38.23% 90% 10% 0%
Bush 95% 37.82% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0% 47.56 37.82% 9% 91% 0%
Other 95% 2.46% 71.0% 21.0% 8.0% 3.09 2.46% 71% 21% 8%
TRUE 100% 52.57% 46.43% 1.01% 100% 51.16% 48.43% 0.41%
Vote 125.74 66.10 58.38 1.27 125.74 64.33 60.89 0.52
Kerry margin: 7.72mm 3.44mm
____________________________________________________________
NATIONAL EXIT POLL (original weights)
12:22am (13047) 2:04pm (matched to vote)
VOTED
2000 Weight Kerry Bush Other Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other
DNV 17% 57% 41% 2% 20.79 17% 54% 45% 1%
Gore 39% 91% 8% 1% 47.70 37% 90% 10% 0%
Bush 41% 10% 90% 0% 50.14 43% 9% 91% 0%
Other 3% 71% 21% 8% 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8%
Total 100% 51.41% 47.62% 0.97% 122.30 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41%
Vote 122.30 62.87 58.24 1.19 122.30 59.29 62.50 0.50
Kerry margin: 4.63mm -3.22mm
____________________________________________________________
EXIT POLL / VOTE DISCREPANCIES
National EP: -3.87% Kerry vote deviation (1.02% MoE)
Probability: 1 in 18.8 trillion
State EP: Discrepancy exceeded MoE in 16 states for Bush
Probability: 1 in 19.1 trillion
____________________________________________________________
TRUE VOTE RECONCILIATION: UNCOUNTED AND SWITCHED VOTES
Recorded 2.74% +Uncounted +Switched = True Vote
Kerry 59.027 75.0% 2.584 61.611 4.486 7.28% 66.097 52.57%
Bush 62.040 24.0% 0.827 62.867 -4.492 -7.14% 58.375 46.43%
Other 1.228 1.0% 0.034 1.262 0.006 0.45% 1.268 1.01%
Total 122.30 3.445 125.74 0.000 0.58% 125.74 100.0%
____________________________________________________________
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
--------------------
KERRY VOTE SHARE
(sensitivity to Gore and Bush 2000 voter turnout)
Gore Turnout
Bush 90.0% 91.0% 92.0% 93.0% 94.0% 95.0%
95.0% 51.9% 52.0% 52.2% 52.3% 52.4% 52.6%
96.0% 51.7% 51.8% 52.0% 52.1% 52.2% 52.4%
97.0% 51.5% 51.6% 51.8% 51.9% 52.1% 52.2%
98.0% 51.3% 51.5% 51.6% 51.7% 51.9% 52.0%
99.0% 51.1% 51.3% 51.4% 51.5% 51.7% 51.8%
100.% 50.9% 51.1% 51.2% 51.4% 51.5% 51.6%
KERRY VOTE MARGIN
(sensitivity to Gore and Bush 2000 voter turnout)
Gore Turnout
Bush 90.0% 91.0% 92.0% 93.0% 94.0% 95.0%
95.0% 6.03 6.37 6.70 7.04 7.38 7.72
96.0% 5.55 5.89 6.22 6.56 6.90 7.24
97.0% 5.07 5.40 5.74 6.08 6.42 6.76
98.0% 4.59 4.92 5.26 5.60 5.94 6.28
99.0% 4.10 4.44 4.78 5.12 5.46 5.80
100.% 3.62 3.96 4.30 4.64 4.98 5.32
____________________________________________________________
KERRY VOTE SHARE
(sensitivity to Gore 2000 voter turnout and Kerry share of DNV)
Assume 95% Bush 2000 voter turnout
Kerry Share of DNV
Gore 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0% 56.0%
91.0% 50.6% 50.9% 51.1% 51.3% 51.6% 51.8%
92.0% 50.8% 51.0% 51.2% 51.5% 51.7% 51.9%
93.0% 51.0% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.1%
94.0% 51.1% 51.3% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2%
95.0% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1% 52.4%
96.0% 51.4% 51.6% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.5%
97.0% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 52.6%
98.0% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 52.6% 52.8%
99.0% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7% 52.9%
100.% 52.1% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7% 52.9% 53.1%
KERRY VOTE MARGIN
(sensitivity to Gore 2000 voter turnout and Kerry share of DNV)
Kerry Share of DNV
Gore 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0% 56.0%
91.0% 2.88 3.46 4.04 4.62 5.20 5.78
92.0% 3.28 3.85 4.42 4.99 5.56 6.13
93.0% 3.68 4.24 4.80 5.36 5.92 6.48
94.0% 4.08 4.63 5.18 5.73 6.28 6.83
95.0% 4.48 5.02 5.56 6.10 6.64 7.18
96.0% 4.88 5.41 5.94 6.47 7.00 7.53
97.0% 5.28 5.80 6.32 6.84 7.36 7.88
98.0% 5.68 6.19 6.70 7.21 7.72 8.23
99.0% 6.08 6.58 7.08 7.58 8.08 8.58
100.% 6.48 6.97 7.46 7.95 8.44 8.93
____________________________________________________________
KERRY VOTE SHARE
(sensitivity to Kerry share of Gore and Bush 2000 voter turnout)
2000 Voter Turnout
Gore 95%
Bush 95%
Gore
Bush 87.0% 88.0% 89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0%
8.00% 50.28% 50.66% 51.05% 51.43% 51.81% 52.19%
7.00% 49.90% 50.28% 50.67% 51.05% 51.43% 51.81%
6.00% 49.52% 49.91% 50.29% 50.67% 51.05% 51.44%
5.00% 49.15% 49.53% 49.91% 50.29% 50.68% 51.06%
4.00% 48.77% 49.15% 49.53% 49.91% 50.30% 50.68%
3.00% 48.39% 48.77% 49.15% 49.54% 49.92% 50.30%
2.00% 48.01% 48.39% 48.78% 49.16% 49.54% 49.92%
1.00% 47.63% 48.02% 48.40% 48.78% 49.16% 49.54%
KERRY VOTE MARGIN
(sensitivity to Kerry share of Gore and Bush 2000 voter turnout)
Gore
Bush 87.0% 88.0% 89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0%
8.00% 1.97 2.94 3.90 4.86 5.82 6.78
7.00% 1.02 1.98 2.95 3.91 4.87 5.83
6.00% 0.07 1.03 1.99 2.96 3.92 4.88
5.00% -0.88 0.08 1.04 2.00 2.97 3.93
4.00% -1.83 -0.87 0.09 1.05 2.02 2.98
3.00% -2.78 -1.82 -0.86 0.10 1.06 2.03
2.00% -3.73 -2.77 -1.81 -0.85 0.11 1.07
1.00% -4.68 -3.72 -2.76 -1.80 -0.84 0.12
____________________________________________________________
SWITCHED VOTE RATE
(sensitivity to Gore and Bush 2000 voter turnout)
Gore
Bush 95% 95.5% 96.0% 96.5% 97.0% 97.5%
95.0% 7.3% 7.4% 7.6% 7.7% 7.8% 8.0%
95.5% 7.1% 7.2% 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% 7.8%
96.0% 6.9% 7.0% 7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6%
96.5% 6.7% 6.8% 7.0% 7.1% 7.3% 7.4%
97.0% 6.5% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 7.1% 7.2%
97.5% 6.3% 6.5% 6.6% 6.7% 6.9% 7.0%
____________________________________________________________
PROBABILITY OF KERRY VOTE DEVIATION
(sensitivity to Gore and Bush 2000 voter turnout)
Gore
Bush 95.0% 96.0% 97.0% 98.0% 99.0% 100.0%
95.0% 5.E-14 7.E-15 9.E-16 1.E-16 0.E+00 0.E+00
96.0% 8.E-13 1.E-13 1.E-14 2.E-15 2.E-16 0.E+00
97.0% 1.E-11 2.E-12 2.E-13 3.E-14 4.E-15 4.E-16
98.0% 1.E-10 2.E-11 3.E-12 5.E-13 7.E-14 9.E-15
99.0% 1.E-09 2.E-10 4.E-11 6.E-12 9.E-13 1.E-13
100.% 9.E-09 2.E-09 4.E-10 7.E-11 1.E-11 2.E-12
____________________________________________________________
PROBABILITY OF KERRY VOTE DEVIATION
(sensitivity to Gore 2000 voter turnout and Kerry share of DNV)
Assume 95% Bush 2000 voter turnout
Kerry Share of DNV
Gore 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0% 56.0% 57.0%
9.E-01 6.E-05 8.E-06 1.E-06 9.E-08 7.E-09 5.E-10
9.E-01 2.E-05 2.E-06 2.E-07 2.E-08 1.E-09 9.E-11
9.E-01 4.E-06 5.E-07 5.E-08 4.E-09 3.E-10 2.E-11
9.E-01 9.E-07 1.E-07 9.E-09 7.E-10 5.E-11 2.E-12
9.E-01 2.E-07 2.E-08 2.E-09 1.E-10 7.E-12 4.E-13
1.E+00 4.E-08 4.E-09 3.E-10 2.E-11 1.E-12 5.E-14
1.E+00 7.E-09 6.E-10 5.E-11 3.E-12 2.E-13 7.E-15
1.E+00 1.E-09 1.E-10 7.E-12 4.E-13 2.E-14 9.E-16
1.E+00 2.E-10 1.E-11 9.E-13 5.E-14 2.E-15 1.E-16
1.E+00 2.E-11 2.E-12 1.E-13 6.E-15 2.E-16 0.E+00
THE EXCEL 2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL
Prove to yourself in 5 minutes why Kerry must have won - easy.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/KerryTrueVote.zip
A challenge to all those who still believe Bush won: come up with just ONE plausible Bush win scenario.
Enter your own assumptions:
1) Kerry's share of New, Gore, Bush and Other 2000 voters (12:22am and Final 2pm exit polls are available for reference)
2) Turnout of Gore, Bush, Other 2000 voters in 2004
3) Uncounted votes as a % of total votes cast (2.74% according to the Census)
COMPREHENSIVE ELECTION 2004 SITE:
POLLING DATA, ANALYSIS, DISCUSSION
http://www.truthisall.net/
THE EXCEL INTERACTIVE ELECTION MODEL
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Interactive...
View the original 11/1/04 election model forecast (it matched the exit polls) that Kerry would win
51.63-51.80% of the 2-party vote at:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/