Table 1:  Voting and Party Registration for the 2004 Presidential Elections in Florida.

Sources: http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/ (Nov 5 2004), http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voterreg/vrArchive/2004voterreg.shtml#04gen

County

Voting Machine

Votes (100% reporting)

Party Registration (Oct 4 2004)

%Votes Difference

%Registration Difference

Republican

Democratic

Total

Republican

Democratic

Total

Alachua

Op-Scan-Precinct

47615

62348

111022

39605

71948

142358

-13.3

-22.7

Baker

Op-Scan-Precinct

7738

2180

9955

3126

8926

12887

55.8

-45.0

Bay

Op-Scan-Precinct

53388

21058

74998

44751

39707

101315

43.1

5.0

Bradford

Op-Scan-Precinct

7553

3244

10851

4168

9039

14721

39.7

-33.1

Brevard

Op-Scan-Precinct

152838

110153

265075

151535

123578

338195

16.1

8.3

Broward

E-Touchscreen

243118

451521

702949

283736

533976

1058069

-29.6

-23.7

Calhoun

Op-Scan-Precinct

3780

2116

5961

993

6879

8350

27.9

-70.5

Charlotte

E-Touchscreen

44402

34227

79730

51110

36306

113808

12.8

13.0

Citrus

Op-Scan-Precinct

39498

29274

69462

37653

35340

90780

14.7

2.5

Clay

Op-Scan-Precinct

61881

18905

81230

60192

27282

106464

52.9

30.9

Collier

E-Touchscreen

83485

43713

128352

89559

41082

168673

31.0

28.7

Columbia

Op-Scan-Precinct

16753

8029

24984

10737

19374

34282

34.9

-25.2

DeSoto

Op-Scan-Precinct

5512

3910

9495

3787

8838

14901

16.9

-33.9

Dixie

Op-Scan-Precinct

4433

1959

6440

1454

7495

9676

38.4

-62.4

Duval

Op-Scan-Precinct

219251

158121

379614

190111

238264

515202

16.1

-9.3

Escambia

Op-Scan-Precinct

93367

48243

142990

83165

77250

189833

31.6

3.1

Flagler

Op-Scan-Precinct

19632

18574

38475

19179

17940

47068

2.7

2.6

Franklin

Op-Scan-Precinct

3472

2400

5930

1212

5893

7620

18.1

-61.4

Gadsden

Op-Scan-Precinct

6253

14629

20984

3012

22280

26884

-39.9

-71.7

Gilchrist

Op-Scan-Precinct

4934

2016

7012

2750

5295

9035

41.6

-28.2

Glades

Op-Scan-Precinct

2443

1718

4188

1479

3867

5963

17.3

-40.0

Gulf

Op-Scan-Precinct

4794

2398

7256

2557

6464

9627

33.0

-40.6

Hamilton

Op-Scan-Precinct

2792

2260

5079

1140

6029

7645

10.5

-64.0

Hardee

Op-Scan-Precinct

5047

2148

7246

2779

6630

10399

40.0

-37.0

Hendry

Op-Scan-Precinct

5756

3960

9774

5279

9688

17144

18.4

-25.7

Hernando

Op-Scan-Precinct

40137

35006

75832

45266

42554

109656

6.8

2.5

Highlands

Op-Scan-Precinct

25874

15346

41491

26752

23939

60176

25.4

4.7

Hillsborough

E-Touchscreen

244606

213413

461520

217766

258882

621201

6.8

-6.6

Holmes

Op-Scan-Precinct

6410

1810

8298

2344

7988

10982

55.4

-51.4

Indian River

E-Touchscreen

36869

23932

61321

41866

24515

81643

21.1

21.3

Jackson

Op-Scan-Precinct

12115

7552

19797

5962

19411

27138

23.0

-49.6

Jefferson

Op-Scan-Precinct

3298

4134

7477

1929

6726

9300

-11.2

-51.6

Lafayette

Op-Scan-Precinct

2460

845

3325

570

3570

4309

48.6

-69.6

Lake

E-Touchscreen

74382

48216

123938

76387

55258

161269

21.1

13.1

Lee

E-Touchscreen

144414

94365

241433

144948

90716

304937

20.7

17.8

Leon

Op-Scan-Precinct

51594

83830

136314

45578

97672

171182

-23.6

-30.4

Levy

Op-Scan-Precinct

10408

6073

16649

6241

13503

22617

26.0

-32.1

Liberty

Op-Scan-Precinct

1927

1070

3021

320

3597

4075

28.4

-80.4

Madison

Op-Scan-Precinct

4196

4048

8307

1695

9042

11371

1.8

-64.6

Manatee

Op-Scan-Precinct

81272

61228

143539

84804

63305

191635

14.0

11.2

Marion

Op-Scan-Precinct

81267

57255

139644

79572

73168

184257

17.2

3.5

Martin

E-Touchscreen

41350

30197

72430

51869

27203

98857

15.4

25.0

Miami-Dade

E-Touchscreen

358613

406099

768553

368334

453631

1058801

-6.2

-8.1

Monroe

Op-Scan-Precinct

19462

19649

39525

19874

18563

51377

-.5

2.6

Nassau

E-Touchscreen

23732

8545

32664

20300

15218

41353

46.5

12.3

Okaloosa

Op-Scan-Precinct

69654

19358

89707

72885

31526

127455

56.1

32.4

Okeechobee

Op-Scan-Precinct

6987

5151

12197

5537

10891

18627

15.1

-28.7

Orange

Op-Scan-Precinct

192390

193217

387752

186614

213702

531774

-.2

-5.1

Osceola

Op-Scan-Precinct

43108

38617

82178

42462

52064

129487

5.5

-7.4

Palm Beach

E-Touchscreen

211894

327698

542835

233495

329232

729575

-21.3

-13.1

Pasco

E-Touchscreen

103198

84731

190866

106649

99272

265974

9.7

2.8

Pinellas

E-Touchscreen

225627

225367

455203

231652

223544

590989

.1

1.4

Polk

Op-Scan-Precinct

123532

85983

210777

115211

125870

295742

17.8

-3.6

Putnam

Op-Scan-Precinct

18305

12409

30964

12728

26184

45344

19.0

-29.7

Santa Rosa

Op-Scan-Precinct

51988

14637

67213

53853

27083

96359

55.6

27.8

Sarasota

E-Touchscreen

104630

88382

195530

115317

74986

240592

8.3

16.8

Seminole

Op-Scan-Precinct

108126

76938

186115

107613

77964

241230

16.8

12.3

St. Johns

Op-Scan-Precinct

59178

26389

86262

58436

31051

109635

38.0

25.0

St. Lucie

Op-Scan-Precinct

47519

51760

99913

50436

57128

137951

-4.2

-4.9

Sumter

E-Touchscreen

19795

11584

31837

17631

16553

40523

25.8

2.7

Suwannee

Op-Scan-Precinct

11153

4521

15801

5885

13941

21930

42.0

-36.7

Taylor

Op-Scan-Precinct

5466

3049

8580

2170

8679

11481

28.2

-56.7

Union

Op-Scan-Precinct

3396

1251

4675

1291

5331

7063

45.9

-57.2

Volusia

Op-Scan-Precinct

111544

115319

228358

111372

126405

309930

-1.7

-4.9

Wakulla

Op-Scan-Precinct

6777

4896

11763

3730

10293

15396

16.0

-42.6

Walton

Op-Scan-Precinct

17553

6213

23974

16413

12051

32777

47.3

13.3

Washington

Op-Scan-Precinct

7368

2912

10365

3666

9668

14421

43.0

-41.6

%Votes Difference = (Republican Votes -- Democratic Votes) / Total Votes * 100%

%Party Registration Difference = (Republican Registration -- Democratic Registration) / Total Registration * 100%

Table 2: Pearson's Correlation Between %Party Registration Difference and %Votes Difference.

Voting Machine

Number of Counties

Correlation

Statistical Significance

E-Touchscreen

15

0.78

p < 0.001

Op-Scan-Precinct

52

0.09

n.s.

Total

67

0.05

n.s.

Table 2 shows that there is a strong relationship between party registration and voting if the E-Touchscreen voting machine is used, but not if the Op-Scan voting machine is used. If all counties are taken together, then there is also no relationship between party registration and voting.

Figure 1: A scattergram of the %Registration Difference and the %Voting Difference, split by the Voting Machine that was used.

 

If there is a strong relation between voting and registration, then we expect most data points in the right-top (Republican Registration and Voting) and the left-bottom (Democratic Registration and Voting) quadrants. This is the case for the E-Touchscreen voting machines. If a voting machine produces random errors, then we expect data points in the left-top (Democratic Registration and Republican Voting) and the right bottom (Republican Registration and Democratic Voting) quadrants. We see a lot of data points in the left-top quadrant, but not in the right-bottom quadrant. This seems to suggest a biased error towards Republican vote counting in counties with strong Democratic Party Registration.

There is an issue of county size. If we split the counties in counties larger or smaller than 100,000 registered voters, we get:

Figure 2: A scattergram of the %Registration Difference and the %Voting Difference, split by the Voting Machine that was used for large counties.

Figure 2 shows that there is a similar relationship between Party Registration and Voting, but the Op-Scan voting machines register about 6% larger Republican - Democrat difference than the E-Touchscreen voting machines. This is statistically significant (p < 0.01).

Figure 3: A scattergram of the %Registration Difference and the %Voting Difference, split by the Voting Machine that was used for small counties.

Figure 3 shows that there is no relationship between Party registration and Voting for the smaller counties. There are too few E-Touchscreen counties to say anything about the difference between the Voting machines.

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